The UK’s new post-Budget outlook gives finance teams a reason to revisit next year’s cash assumptions. Published on 28 October 2026, the Office for Budget Responsibility’s October forecast puts 2027 CPI inflation at 3.5%, compared with 2% in March, and real GDP growth at 1%, around half a percentage point below its March forecast. These are forecasts, not reported outcomes. For businesses paying overseas suppliers, the practical question is how resilient their funding plan remains if costs and customer receipts differ from expectations. Source: OBR outlook.
Higher inflation, slower growth: separate the assumptions
The OBR identifies higher energy prices as a pressure on UK inflation and real household incomes. Its central forecast assumes energy prices subsequently decline in line with market pricing, with inflation returning to 2% in 2028. The report emphasises a wide range of possible outcomes.
That national picture should inform a company’s scenarios, rather than replace its own evidence. An importer’s energy bill, freight charges and supplier prices can move differently from consumer inflation. A logistics business should distinguish contracted fuel surcharges from costs that remain open to repricing.
Keep the inflation target separate from an FX forecast
In its monetary-policy remit dated 28 October, HM Treasury reconfirmed the Bank of England’s 2% CPI inflation target and supported the Monetary Policy Committee’s operational independence. That remit is not a new interest-rate decision. Neither it nor the OBR outlook provides an executable sterling exchange rate. Source: Treasury remit.
The business implication is to keep three decisions distinct: the commercial invoice amount, the currency conversion required and the funding date. Do not assume a macroeconomic forecast guarantees cheaper borrowing or a more favourable payment rate.
Build a payment plan around obligations
Review the next quarter’s committed overseas payments by currency and due date. Match them against available currency balances and expected receipts, and identify any gap before approving new stock or freight commitments. Test a slower collection scenario alongside the base case, using assumptions specific to the business.
Confirm supplier beneficiary details, payment references and applicable cut-offs early. Our guide to paying overseas suppliers explains these operational checks. Brisk Pay supports international business payments and FX for eligible corporate clients, subject to the business, jurisdiction and payment requirements.
Discuss your international payment requirements — Sales Enquiry.